Taylor Swift has power to swing the presidential election. What if nothing else matters?
It’s possible everything leading up to the 2024 presidential election – the trials (literally) of former President Donald Trump, the age of both Trump and President Joe Biden, the teeth-gnashing over endless voter polls – will prove to be nothing but noise and the thing that swings voters will be Taylor Swift.
On Sunday, the 33-year-old pop star did what few can ever manage: She broke the NFL’s autumn-game-day vice grip on the headlines and became THE story by attending the Kansas City Chiefs home game and cheering on all-pro tight end Travis Kelce. Are the two dating? Nothing’s confirmed, but that didn’t matter. The cameras were on Swift, and news of the pair was as ubiquitous as coverage of the day’s games. The sale of Kelce jerseys leaped nearly 400% after the singer appeared at the game.
Such is the power of the leader of the Swifties. She oversees arguably the most fervent fan base in existence – neck and neck with Beyoncé's powerful Beyhive – and in a presidential election likely to be uncomfortably close, no one should underestimate her influence.
One Taylor Swift post drives voter registration, imagine what more could do
As a case in point, Sept. 19 was National Voter Registration Day. With one Instagram post, Swift helped the nonprofit group Vote.org register more than 35,000 new voters, a nearly 25% increase over the same day last year.
The group also saw a 115% jump in 18-year-olds registering to vote. One day. One Instagram post.
That should put some fear into Republicans as they gather Wednesday night for a GOP presidential primary debate that won’t include Trump, the party’s far-and-away front-runner for the nomination. He doesn’t see the value in debating a pack of also-rans, which is fine.
But he and the rest of his party might want to recognize the possibility that a fired-up stampede of young voters motivated by Swift could trample them in November 2024.
Bad week for Republicans:The GOP gives America a debate, an impeachment hearing and a government shutdown. Oh my.
Young voters loyal to Taylor Swift or Beyoncé don't love Republicans
According to a study by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, the turnout of voters ages 18-29 in the 2020 midterm elections was the second highest it has been in nearly three decades. And those voters prefer Democrats over Republicans by a 28-point margin.
In the Wisconsin governor’s race, 70% of young voters picked Democratic Gov. Tony Evers over his Republican opponent.
Earlier this year, a surge of young voters in Wisconsin helped elect a liberal justice to the state’s Supreme Court, switching the balance of power on the court and leading Republicans like former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker to fear-tweet ridiculous things like this: “Younger voters are the issue. It comes from years of radical indoctrination – on campus, in school, with social media, & throughout culture. We have to counter it or conservatives will never win battleground states again.”
It's not about changing party allegiance, it's about getting voters to show up
To be clear, neither Swift nor Beyoncé, regardless of the strength of their celebrity, are going to turn Republicans into Democratic voters. Party loyalty, particularly in the age of Trump, borders on impenetrable.
But this isn’t about changing allegiances. As with any election, it’s about motivating enough people who share your beliefs and values to take the time to vote.
And that’s where a Swiftie Sway or a Beyoncé Bump can make a determinative difference, by inspiring fans of all ages to vote, and possibly even getting Generation Z followers (born between 1997 to 2012) to rouse politically dispirited souls from older generations.
Gen Z's political power:We'll be an unbeatable force in 2024 – if we stand up to the far right together
Taylor Swift and Beyoncé are cultural and economic forces of nature
The two performers are pop culture phenomenons whose performances have become economic forces of nature. Boosting local economies at each stop, Swift’s ongoing Eras Tour, according to the research firm QuestionPro, could wind up generating as much as $5 billion in economic activity.
Billboard is predicting Beyoncé's Renaissance tour, once it wraps up, will have made more than $500 million, while creating similar booms for local economies at each stop.
Swift and Beyoncé have influence the likes of Oprah Winfrey’s back in 2007 when she endorsed one Sen. Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential primary.
And in the age of social media, I’d argue their influence is considerably stronger. You doubt the power of Swifties or the Beyhive at your own peril.
No celebrity is going to save us, but the potential impact of Swift or Beyoncé is real
Still, we can’t count on the whims of celebrities, particularly ones who are brands unto themselves, to lock up an election. I’m certainly not about to say the fate of the country rests in the hands of any artist or uber-influencer.
But Republicans should recognize that young voters made clear in past elections they have no tolerance for Trump or for GOP policies on abortion, climate change and gun violence. And by the time we get to 2024, their numbers will have grown substantially from the last time Trump was on the ballot.
If Swift continues to lean in on motivating those young voters, it wouldn’t take much of a voter surge to give Democrats an edge in key swing states. Same with Beyoncé.
These two remarkably powerful Americans don’t need to change anyone’s minds. They just need to inspire people to show up, something both have proved historically good at doing.
Follow USA TODAY columnist Rex Huppke on X, formerly Twitter, @RexHuppke and Facebook facebook.com/RexIsAJerk